The DOD asked the MITRE Corporation to assess the United States' ability to anticipate and asess the risk of "rare events," which are defined as catastrophic terrorist attacks, including the use of WMDs. The report points out that the use of predictive models may be of little help, given that the models have not been validated due to the absence of a rare event to evaluate. The authors also point out that rare event assessment is also a matter of human behavior, which likewise is impossible to accurately model. Recognizing that their task was very hard, the authors nevertheless offer some suggestions for the way forward.
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